Where Getting it Wrong has no Consequences

There are few professions where one can be consistently wrong and still keep their jobs.

An accountant who messes up the numbers time and time again will soon find that their employer is none too pleased.

A chef that consistently under cooks food and makes his diners sick will soon find that no one wants to eat his food offerings.

The list goes on and on regarding professions where failure really is not an option for keeping their jobs.

Of course, as is the case with every rule, there are exceptions.

Two examples of professions where routine failures and miscalculations do not usually lead to job loss are weather forecasting professionals and sports prognosticators.

History is full of examples where both meteorologists and prognosticators have missed the mark on their “forecasts.” This failure is usually attributed to the fluid nature of what they are trying to predict.

It is true that weather and sports teams do not always follow the forecast models and predicted paths so as the 2013 Major League Baseball season ends its first month it is a good time to look at what preseason predictions were spot on and which ones clearly missed the mark altogether.

Big spending in the offseason as not worked out the way the Toronto Blue Jays hoped as they are dead last in the American League East standings. Photo R. Anderson
Big spending in the off-season has not worked out the way the Toronto Blue Jays hoped as they are dead last in the American League East standings.
Photo R. Anderson

Let’s start with the American League East standings. As mentioned before, it is the division that I have spent most of my life rooting for so it is both familiar and near and dear to my heart. It is also considered one of the toughest divisions in baseball year in and year out.

As of April 30, the Boston Red Sox were leading the division with the Toronto Blue Jays six games back in last place. The Tampa Bay Rays were in second to last place 2.5 games out of first.

Many preseason predictions showed the Toronto Blue Jays, who spent heavily on free agents in the off-season, running the table and battling the Rays for the Division title. In reality R.A. Dickey, the National League CY Young Award winner last year with the Mets, has failed to capture that same form this year with the Blue Jays. And other off-season acquisitions have also failed to show the sparks of greatness they were brought in for.

With the other four teams in the division within 2.5 games of each other a six-game hole does seem like a tough mountain to climb for the Jays’ new manager and let’s make a deal roster.

History has shown time and time again that the approach of “buying titles” by making big splashy off-season acquisitions rarely works. The Miami Marlins won two World Series titles using that formula when they were still called the Florida Marlins but the success was fleeting and each title was followed by a fire sale where all of the talent was sent packing in a payroll dumping measure.

The Marlins tried that approach again last year and sent most of their talent to the Blue Jays before the start of this season when their attempt to buy the series last year failed.

But despite this cautionary tale the Blue Jays will not be the last team to try the free agent quick fix route to a World Championship.

So with the American League East returning to a more familiar formula of the Red Sox and Yankees battling at the top with the Rays and Orioles trying to crash the party let us turn our sights to the newest kid on the American League block.

The Houston Astros face an uphill climb in their first season in the American League. I think everyone can agree on that fact. What people cannot seem to agree on is just how bad, or how good they will be this year.

Former Nationals turned Astros Bo Porter and Rick Ankiel hope to bring some of the winning ways from Washington with them to Houston. Photo R. Anderson
Former Nationals turned Astros Bo Porter and Rick Ankiel hope to bring some of the winning ways from Washington with them to Houston.
Photo R. Anderson

Before the season many sports prediction experts tapped the Astros as being the worst team in baseball for the third straight year with at best 50 wins over the course of the 161 game season.

Of course a funny thing happened during the first month of the season with the Astros winning 8 games or roughly 10 percent of the total number of wins most people thought they would have all year.

And yes, there have been some really one sided games and pitching issues in the first inning that have led to insurmountable leads for the opponents and really ugly losses for the Astros.

There have also been some quality wins over some tough opponents in the Rangers, Yankees and Angels. As well as four wins over their American League West division foe Seattle Mariners. And one more thing, The Miami Marlins have a worse record than the Astros and several teams have only one more win than Houston.

Does this mean that the Astros will go on a tear and win 60 or 70 games this year? Not necessarily. But, it does show that at this point in the season the team everybody wrote off in Spring Training has shown they have a little more fight and spirit than they were given credit for.

While things in the American League seem to be bucking many of the preseason trends, things in the National League are going a little more to plan at the completion of the first month of the season.

Just kidding, the National League is equally as crazy as the American league at this point in the season.

Currently trailing the Atlanta Braves the Washington Nationals are hoping to take manager Davey Johnson to the World Series in his last season at the helm. Photo R. Anderson
Currently trailing the Atlanta Braves the Washington Nationals are hoping to take manager Davey Johnson to the World Series in his last season at the helm.
Photo R. Anderson

I mean did anyone really expect that the Colorado Rockies would be leading the National League West and be two games ahead of the World Champion San Francisco Giants?

And back east did anyone expect the Atlanta Braves to be 3.5 games ahead of the Washington Nationals who had the best record in the regular season last year?

While there is still time for the forecasts to turn more in favor of the preseason numbers after the first month of the season there are certainly trends to support that many people just missed the mark on their predictions.

Personally I like when the predictions don’t go as planned since that shows that the game is unpredictable and anyone can win on any given day.

If all of the outcomes were known in advance it would make for a very boring season. So I salute the men and women whose preseason predictions missed the mark and say “let’s play ball for the next five months or so.”

Now if you’ll excuse me it is time to watch the weather forecast to see if I do or do not need an umbrella. Of course, they have a 50/50 chance of being both right and wrong.

Copyright 2013 R Anderson

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